U.A.E. Expels Pakistani Workers, as Pakistan’s Peacemaking Creates a Rift

As Pakistan mediates between the U.S. and Iran, its ties to the Emirates have deteriorated. Pakistani workers say they are now being sent home en masse.

Pakistan's efforts to mediate between the US and Iran have led to a significant deterioration in its ties with the United Arab Emirates, resulting in the expulsion of thousands of Pakistani workers. The UAE has been a major destination for Pakistani laborers, with over 1.6 million Pakistanis working in the country, sending back remittances worth $4.8 billion in 2020. The expulsions are reportedly targeting workers in the construction and service sectors, with many being given just a few days' notice to leave the country. Pakistani officials have expressed concern over the sudden move, citing the potential impact on the country's economy.

This development directly affects the global oil market, as the UAE is a major oil producer and any instability in the region can impact oil prices. The expulsion of Pakistani workers could lead to labor shortages in the UAE's oil and gas sector, potentially disrupting production and driving up costs. This, in turn, could lead to higher fuel prices, affecting the cost of transportation and goods worldwide. The price of crude oil has already seen a significant increase in recent months, and this development could further exacerbate the trend.

The UAE's decision to expel Pakistani workers is part of a larger pattern of regional tensions and shifting alliances in the Middle East. The UAE has long been a key player in regional politics, and its relations with Pakistan have been influenced by its own ties with other countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan's decision to mediate between the US and Iran has been seen as a betrayal by some of its traditional allies, including the UAE, which has led to a re-evaluation of their relationship. Insiders know that the UAE's move is also driven by its own economic concerns, including a desire to reduce its reliance on foreign labor.

The Pakistani government is expected to respond to the UAE's decision by seeking alternative destinations for its workers, with countries such as Qatar and Oman being considered. A meeting between Pakistani and UAE officials is scheduled for March 15 to discuss the issue, and a decision on the fate of the expelled workers is expected shortly after. Interestingly, the UAE's move may ultimately benefit countries like China, which has been increasingly investing in the region and may see an opportunity to fill the labor gap left by the expelled Pakistani workers.