How Trump's Saudi Nuclear Deal Could Shock Oil Markets and Your Portfolio
Experts told JI that the agreement in its current form would not require Riyadh to adhere to the nonproliferation ‘gold standard’ – a commitment to forgo domestic uranium enrichment and fuel reprocessing
The proposed civil nuclear pact with Saudi Arabia would allow the kingdom to enrich uranium and reprocess fuel, sparking concerns among nonproliferation experts. According to experts, the agreement in its current form does not require Riyadh to adhere to the nonproliferation 'gold standard', a commitment to forgo domestic uranium enrichment and fuel reprocessing. The Trump administration is preparing to submit the proposed pact to Congress, where lawmakers such as Senator Jeff Merkley and Representative Brad Sherman have expressed concerns. The deal could be worth billions of dollars to US companies like Westinghouse Electric and General Electric.
The potential agreement could impact oil markets, as Saudi Arabia's increased energy production could lead to a decrease in oil prices. This, in turn, could affect the portfolio of investors who have stakes in oil companies. For instance, a decrease in oil prices could lead to a decrease in the stock price of oil companies like ExxonMobil. This could result in significant financial losses for investors who have invested heavily in the oil industry.
The US has historically been a proponent of the nonproliferation 'gold standard', and the potential agreement with Saudi Arabia marks a departure from this stance. The Obama administration had negotiated a similar deal with the United Arab Emirates, which included a commitment to forgo domestic uranium enrichment and fuel reprocessing. Insiders know that the Trump administration's willingness to negotiate a less stringent deal with Saudi Arabia is likely due to the kingdom's significant economic and strategic importance. This shift in policy has significant implications for the global nonproliferation regime.
The Trump administration is expected to submit the proposed pact to Congress in the coming weeks, where it will face scrutiny from lawmakers. A vote on the agreement is expected to take place by the end of the year. The outcome of this vote will be closely watched by investors and energy analysts, as it could have significant implications for the oil market. Interestingly, Saudi Arabia's crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has stated that the kingdom will develop nuclear weapons if Iran does, adding a layer of complexity to the already contentious issue.
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