Trump’s claim the Iran war will end ‘very soon’ could flood the market with Iranian oil, crashing gas prices and shaking up your energy stocks before the midterms.
President Donald Trump said he thinks the war with Iran will end “very soon,” likely after the midterms, accusing Tehran of trying to hold out “as long as they can to complicate the election.”
Trump told Fox News that he expects the war with Iran to end “very soon,” likely after the November 5 2024 midterm elections. He accused Tehran of trying to prolong the conflict to complicate the election outcome. The warning came as the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a Marshall Islands‑flagged crude carrier was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on September 24 2025. The vessel, carrying roughly two million barrels of oil, suffered damage to its starboard side but no crew injuries were reported.
If Iranian oil exports resume after the conflict ends, analysts estimate that global crude supplies could rise by about one million barrels per day. Such an increase would likely push US gasoline prices down by roughly ten cents per gallon at the pump. For a typical driver who fills a 15‑gallon tank each week, that translates to a saving of about $1.50 per fill‑up.
The Strait of Hormuz carries about twenty percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade, making any disruption there a potential price shock. Prior to the 2018 reimposition of US sanctions, Iran exported roughly 2.5 million barrels per day; today its official exports are under 0.5 million barrels per day. Insiders note that lifting those sanctions could restore up to 1.5 million barrels per day to the market, a volume that has historically shifted Brent crude prices by several dollars per barrel.
Market watchers should watch the OPEC+ ministerial meeting set for December 5 2024, where participants will assess any change in Iranian output. The US Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly petroleum status report on November 8 2024, offering early data on inventories and imports. A surprising counterpoint is that even with extra Iranian oil, regional refinery bottlenecks could limit how quickly the additional supply reaches consumers, potentially dampening the expected price drop.
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