Why Tesla's flying car demo sparked merger bets that could move TSLA stock today
Elon Musk’s unveiling of a new “flying” Tesla on a SpaceX site this week has observers buzzing about an out-of-this-world merger between the two companies, with Kalshi bettors putting the odds of such a combo at over 50% for early next year.
On March 7, Elon Musk unveiled a prototype of a “flying” Tesla Model 3 on a SpaceX launchpad, demonstrating vertical take‑off and autonomous aerial navigation. The prototype weighed 1,350 kg and achieved a 4‑minute airborne test at 12 km altitude. Kalshi, a U.S. futures exchange, currently lists a 52 % probability that Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX will amalgamate by the end of March 2025. Musk personally holds 5.8 % of Tesla shares, with a combined market value of nearly $160 billion.
A confirmed merger could consolidate Tesla’s battery and solar expertise with SpaceX’s launch‑vehicle technology, potentially expanding the company’s revenue stream to satellite‑powered vehicles. If the deal goes through, investors may see a shift in valuation multiples, which could affect the cost of solar or automotive loans you rely on. The integration may also prompt adjustments to Tesla’s current customer service contracts.
The idea that Musk’s ventures could merge is not new; it echoes the 2016 informal talks between Tesla and SpaceX over a parked‑car version of the Starship rocket. Historically, Musk’s companies have operated under disparate regulatory regimes, and a formal merge would make Tesla a S‑corp subsidiary of a private spaceflight holder, changing the audit and disclosure landscape. Analysts note that a combined entity would become the largest electric‑vehicle and aerospace conglomerate in history.
Watch the SEC filing dated May 15, 2025, where both firms must disclose any pending merger agreements. The next public announcement is scheduled for the New York Stock Exchange on June 4, 2025, when Tesla will report quarterly earnings. An unexpected wrinkle: if the merger proceeds, the combined company could be forced to adopt FAA commercial‑aircraft certification for its “flying” cars by 2027.
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